noveltune Chapter 46 Zhou Shiming's Friends
Chapter 46 Zhou Shiming's Friends
Sunlight streamed through the blinds of the exclusive "special client room" in the provincial securities branch, casting alternating light and dark stripes on the polished floor. The room was filled with the aroma of tea mixed with the smell of smoke.
Manager Zhou Shiming sat somewhat reservedly to one side, next to a well-dressed, capable-looking middle-aged man surnamed Zheng. Zheng was the owner of a sizable import-export company in the provincial capital, and also an important client and old friend of Zhou Shiming. Mr. Zheng's gaze, filled with scrutiny and curiosity, fell on the overly young face opposite him—Ling Yun.
"Mr. Ling, I apologize for disturbing you." Zhou Shiming introduced with a smile, "This is General Manager Zheng, an old friend of mine. He heard about your amazing operations in the domestic stock market and admired you greatly. Recently, he has become very interested in overseas markets, especially US stocks. Knowing that you have a broad perspective, he insisted that I bring him here to consult with you."
Mr. Zheng nodded slightly, handed over a business card, and said politely, "Mr. Ling, you are very accomplished at such a young age. To be honest, I have some spare cash, but I feel bad about leaving it in the bank to earn interest. I've heard that stocks in the US, especially those related to computers and the internet, are rising very sharply. I'd like to hear your opinion, Mr. Ling."
Ling Yun took the business card, glanced at it, and put it down. He understood that Zhou Shiming was using his influence to maintain important client relationships, and at the same time, it was a test to see his judgment on the broader market.
He didn't answer immediately. Instead, he picked up his teacup, took a small sip, and gathered his thoughts. In 1996, very few people in China had any contact with or understanding of the US stock market; information channels were extremely scarce. He needed to offer advice that not only reflected the limitations of the era's understanding but also demonstrated a forward-thinking perspective.
"Mr. Zheng, you flatter me." Ling Yun put down his teacup and calmly met the other person's gaze. "US stocks, especially tech stocks, are indeed at an unprecedented window of opportunity."
His very first words set the tone and drew the full attention of President Zheng and Zhou Shiming.
"To understand this opportunity, we need to look at it from two perspectives." Ling Yun began to unravel the complexities, his language clear and logical. "First, there's the macro level: US monetary policy. Under Greenspan's leadership, the Federal Reserve has maintained a relatively loose monetary environment since the late 1980s, committed to promoting economic growth and curbing inflation. Low interest rates mean low financing costs for businesses, which is beneficial to industries like technology companies that need to continuously burn money on R&D and expansion. The continuous flow of capital is the fertile ground for the creation of a tech bubble... no, it's the key to the creation of a tech boom."
"Greenspan...low interest rate environment..." Mr. Zheng repeated these keywords in a low voice, seemingly lost in thought. As someone involved in import and export trade, he was not entirely ignorant of the international macroeconomic situation, and Ling Yun's guidance allowed him to grasp the key point instantly.
"Secondly, there's the industry level," Ling Yun continued, his tone carrying an undeniable certainty. "We are standing at the starting point of a great transformation. The wave of personal computer adoption is irreversible, and this is just the beginning. Next, we will see the deep integration of computer and communication technologies, the so-called 'information superhighway.'"
He drew an upward curve in the air with his hand: "Hardware (computers, network equipment) is the foundation, software (operating systems, applications) is the soul, and the Internet will be the neural network that connects everything and unleashes all potential. The speed of development of this industry and the degree of disruption it will bring to the traditional economy will exceed all of our imaginations."
Zhou Shiming and General Manager Zheng held their breath, as if listening to a prophecy about the future.
"Based on this assessment," Lingyun revealed his true intentions, offering specific targets, "if Mr. Zheng wants to make a long-term investment and share in the benefits of this technological revolution, I can offer a few directional suggestions."
He picked up a pen and wrote down a few English names on a piece of sticky paper next to him:
YHOO, CSCO, MSFT, DELL, AOL.
"Yahoo!" Lingyun pointed to the first name. "It's not just a simple website; it's trying to build a 'portal,' an index, for the chaotic and disordered world of the internet. This is the scarcest value in the information explosion era—navigation. Although it may not be profitable now, its model and user growth potential are enormous."
"Cisco (CSCO)," he pointed to the second one, "is the 'road builder' and 'traffic police' of the information superhighway. Almost all network connections rely on its routers and switches. As long as networks expand, Cisco's demand grows. It is the core of the infrastructure."
"Microsoft (MSFT)," the third name, "controls the 'brain' of the vast majority of personal computers worldwide—the operating system. The ecosystem and standards it has established form extremely high barriers to entry. In the foreseeable future, its dominant position is difficult to shake; it is a ballast stone."
"Dell," the fourth, "disrupted the traditional computer sales chain with its unique direct sales model, drastically reducing costs and making personal computers more accessible at lower prices. It is one of the most astute pioneers in this wave of hardware popularization."
"AOL," the last one, "is working to lower the barrier to entry for ordinary people to access the internet, cultivating a huge initial user base by providing easy-to-use dial-up internet services and content. It is the first door for many people to the world of the internet."
Ling Yun put down his pen and summarized, "These companies occupy key nodes in the future ecosystem: information gateways (Yahoo, AOL), infrastructure (Cisco), system cores (Microsoft), and hardware channels (Dell). They represent trends and directions."
Mr. Zheng looked at the note, his eyes shining, but also tinged with doubt: "Mr. Ling's analysis is insightful! However, these stocks... aren't they already quite expensive? Wouldn't buying now be chasing a high price?"
Ling Yun smiled slightly and shook his head: "President Zheng, when looking at these kinds of growth-oriented technology companies, you can't simply use traditional price-to-earnings ratios and price-to-book ratios. What you need to look at is the broad prospects of the industry they're in, the explosive growth in their user base, and the potential profit levels they can achieve in the future. The real risk isn't buying at the peak, but missing out on the entire era."
He leaned forward slightly, his tone extremely solemn: "My advice is, don't try to trade in waves, and don't get anxious because of short-term fluctuations. Once you've chosen a stock, hold it firmly for the long term. Ignore the ups and downs along the way; your goal is to share in its future growth dividends."
"Then...when should we sell?" Zhou Shiming couldn't help but interject, asking a question that was of utmost concern to all investors.
Ling Yun's gaze deepened, revealing a calm insight into market cycles: "When everyone is frantically rushing into this market, when taxi drivers and barbers are excitedly discussing which tech stocks they bought and how much money they made, when these companies' valuations are so high that they are completely detached from their current and even future profitability, when the rhetoric of 'this time is different' fills the media... that's when we need to start being wary and consider gradually withdrawing."
He paused, then added, "Of course, that might be many years from now. Until then, you need patience and faith."
A brief silence fell over the private room. Mr. Zheng stared down at the notepad with five company codes, as if holding the key to future wealth. Ling Yun's analysis lacked any mystical candlestick chart techniques or insider information; it was built upon a grand historical context, clear industry logic, and profound corporate value judgments. This overwhelmingly superior understanding completely won him over.
"A single conversation with you is worth more than ten years of study!" General Manager Zheng let out a long breath, solemnly folded the note, and put it into his suit pocket. "Mr. Ling, I am deeply grateful! I know what to do."
Zhou Shiming was also deeply moved. He was once again convinced that the young man's vision and perspective had long surpassed the simple A-share market and even national borders.
After seeing off the profusely thankful General Manager Zheng and Zhou Shiming, Ling Yun remained alone in the special room.
Lingyun is considering a trip to the United States. The internet boom has already begun in the US, and he needs to establish some industrial presence, acquire some technologically advanced companies, and incidentally, take advantage of the imperialist stock market.