noveltune Chapter 44 Overinvestment and Bad News
Chapter 44 Overinvestment and Bad News
Palmerston took the initiative to release information to the outside world, and the most important newspapers in Britain also began to write articles from their own perspectives, reporting and commenting on the news brought back by the mission to China.
These news reports brought the issue of Eastern trade to a fever pitch in the final stages of the British parliamentary elections.
The Han emperor himself has become the most popular figure recently.
The Han emperor's proposals for new methods of cooperation, including inviting engineers and scholars to visit and his management of foreign personnel, sparked ongoing discussions among the elite.
Many businesspeople are beginning to believe that directly profiting through overseas investment may be a new direction for business operations.
Previously, there were also investments in Britain that were related to overseas.
But it can be either a one-time commercial procurement cost investment, or the issuance of financial products such as bonds for colonization and war in a specific region, or the large-scale export of products to a certain market.
Previously, there had been no large-scale overseas industrial construction investment.
Britain itself has a limited population, roughly the size of a single province in the Han Dynasty.
Its capacity to support both commodities and investments is relatively limited.
In the early 19th century, the Industrial Revolution was basically completed, and the level of productivity in Britain skyrocketed. However, the vast majority of the profits generated ended up in the pockets of capitalists.
The self-appreciating nature of capital leads capitalists to focus on using profits for investment and expansion of production; they do not allow money to be spent on things that do not seem to generate profits.
The enclosure movement, where sheep devoured people, led to massive bankruptcies among farmers, causing a sustained decline in labor costs in Britain and resulting in negligible purchasing power for ordinary people.
In this situation, capitalists do not see the workers' misery, to the point that life expectancy begins to decline continuously.
What capitalists see directly is that not only can the goods produced in factories not be sold, but more importantly, the capital they hold has nowhere to go.
Capital that is theoretically available for investment and further appreciation cannot be put into actual investment as soon as possible to truly realize capital appreciation, which is a very uncomfortable situation for capitalists.
This is what is known as "overinvestment," with tens of millions of pounds going unspent every year.
Once a recognized high-value investment opportunity emerges, a large influx of capital will immediately rush in.
In 1823, Spain and Portugal declared their recognition of the independence of their American colonies.
British merchants naturally assumed that the whole of Latin America was about to become a huge free market.
Within two years, a large number of investors poured in more than £100 million, rapidly building over a hundred new large-scale textile factories, all ready to grab a share of this potentially huge free market.
However, the combination of old and new production capacity resulted in nationwide overproduction in just over a year.
The crisis began to emerge in 1825 and collapsed completely in 1826, with numerous factories and banks going bankrupt, ultimately leaving behind a scene of devastation.
This was the first nationwide economic crisis in Britain.
After the economic downturn, British investors slightly adjusted their investment strategies and began investing in larger-scale fixed assets and financial bonds.
For example, real estate and railways in Britain, and land bonds issued by various states in the United States.
After nearly a decade of accumulation, the housing and financial investment markets of Britain and the United States, like a pair of interdependent father and son, will explode together in the next two years, triggering the first international financial crisis.
The potential investment demand provided by the Han emperor further fueled the already collapsing market.
Within just one month of the news breaking, more than thirty new companies with names like "Eastern," "China," "Chinese," and "Great Han" appeared on the market.
Various capital sources are vying for talent and technology, preparing to participate in this unique form of new investment.
In this atmosphere, the Whig Party, which facilitated all of this, achieved a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections.
On April 18, 1835, King William IV of Great Britain reappointed Viscount Melbourne as Prime Minister and formed a new Whig cabinet.
The Viscount of Melbourne has appointed Viscount Palmerston as Foreign Secretary again.
The two were in high spirits, preparing to push for parliamentary debate and voting to finalize the agreement with the Great Han.
Then, another delegation would be arranged to formally travel to the Han Dynasty to negotiate investment issues.
At that moment, a message written by the Lieutenant-Governor of the Straits Settlements and relayed by the Governor-General of India via the Red Sea and the Mediterranean was delivered to the office of the British Foreign Secretary.
After checking the seal, Palmerston opened the new seal, pulled out the letter inside, glanced at it, and then jumped up:
"My God! How could this happen! Was this timing intentional?!"
After a brief moment of shock and disbelief, Palmerston grabbed the letter and ran to the Prime Minister's office.
Ignoring everyone's greetings along the way, he walked directly up to the Viscount of Melbourne and said:
"Soon after I led the British mission to China to leave Southeast Asia..."
"The Emperor of the Great Han Dynasty has sent troops to conquer Manila! He may now control the entire Philippines!"
"This is not really that important, after all, the Philippines was just a Spanish colony."
"But the Han's direct reason was to arrest opium smugglers!"
"The large number of British merchants who signed the petition would have been captured and taken back by the big men if they had remained in Manila when the war began."
"They may very well have already been executed!"
Viscount Melbourne snatched the letter from Palmerston, stared at it with wide eyes, and muttered:
"How...how could this be?"
"If the Han emperor's aim is to seize Manila, then there is no need to make things too difficult for the British merchants there."
"If a war were to be waged solely to apprehend smugglers..."
"Is this really necessary?"
The Viscount of Melbourne found the combination of these pieces of information to be utterly absurd.
Palmerston went on to explain his views:
"We need to consider more carefully whether to cooperate in destroying Indian plantations."
"Whatever the real reason, if they could use this pretext to attack Manila, they can continue to use it to attack Singapore or even India!"
The Viscount of Melbourne sat in his chair, taking deep breaths to calm himself down.
"There's no need to worry too much."
"After the Han army captures Manila, they will likely take over the rest of the Philippines, but that will take time."
"After the war in the Philippines ends, they should also need time to recuperate."
"They probably won't attack other places right away."
"Moreover, the Emperor of the Great Han is waiting for our response, as well as the delegation of engineers and scholars that we have arranged."
"They probably won't directly attack British territory."
"Even if we want to continue expanding in Southeast Asia, the natural new target will be Borneo."
Palmerston, however, remained very worried:
"But if we don't make preparations, and the Great Han really continues its attack on Singapore and even India immediately."
"The situation in India is relatively better, as we can mobilize enough indigenous people to join the army. But Singapore is in danger, as there are more Han Chinese than indigenous people there."
"The main fleet should be immediately dispatched to the East, with Singapore as its base, to prevent the Han navy from approaching Singapore and avoid military chaos."
"As long as we can prevent the Han Chinese navy from landing, we can barely guarantee Singapore's security."
The Viscount of Melbourne considered for a while longer:
"This is, after all, only a potential risk, not an actual threat."
"We cannot commit all our resources to a potential risk."
"Sending the main fleet to the East now could cause panic."
"It is also impossible to station most of the main fleet in the East for a long time."
"After the vote, a fleet will be dispatched to Singapore under the guise of escorting the visiting mission."
"Deploy more Indian soldiers to be stationed there."
"Moreover, it is unrealistic to completely eliminate the threat of the Han taking over Singapore."
"We can only strengthen Singapore's defenses to increase the potential cost for the Great Han to take Singapore."
"Let the Han choose other targets based on risk and benefit considerations."
Palmerston accepted Melbourne's viewpoint and then began discussing the aftermath:
What to do with the British merchants in Manila?
"Although the Governor of Singapore could not obtain accurate information, it was highly likely that he had been arrested or even killed."
Melbourne paused for a moment, then uttered a single word:
"Ignore it."
Palmerston pressed for further details and confirmation:
"So, you mean you won't disclose related intelligence to parliament and the public?"
Melbourne nodded with a pained expression:
"When the mission returns to the Han Dynasty, they will inquire with Han officials or the emperor to confirm the situation of these people."
"If they can be saved, that would be great; if they can't, then we can only ignore it."
"Britain cannot declare war on the Han Dynasty for the sake of these people."
"Even if we declare war, we cannot win."
Lin Zexu's punishment of a sailor who broke the law became the trigger for the Opium War.
The Han may have already killed a large number of prominent merchants, but the British Prime Minister believed that this was not a reason to declare war.
Palmerston also endorsed this approach:
"Should we then remind the Governor of Singapore to be wary of, or even expel, the Chinese from Singapore?"
Melbourne immediately waved her hand with a bitter face and said:
"We can't do that. It might backfire. It would be giving the Han emperor a pretext for war."
Palmerston said somewhat uncertainly:
"Then... we need to remind them to do their utmost to protect the lives and property of Chinese Singaporeans?"
"In this way, even if a real conflict occurs with the Han Dynasty, there is still a possibility for both sides to coordinate and resolve the issue."
"If they are really expelled, then the only solution will most likely be war."
Melbourne nodded slightly:
"Yes, a direct conflict with the Han Dynasty in the East would be very disadvantageous for Britain."
"Britain should not engage in conflict with the Han unless it actively seizes Britain's core interests."
Palmerston continued to press:
"What if the news eventually leaks out..."
Melbourne sighed softly:
"We are very sorry about this. We should have done something, but it's too late to say anything now."
"The Han emperor and government did not deal with these merchants by relying on the emperor's autocratic power."
"Instead, they were tried according to laws that had been declared long ago, and crucially, laws that the businessmen already knew about."
Just like the advice given by Qin Wenyuan and other Han Dynasty merchants to the Singapore patrol force.
When the British nobles and merchants discovered that the Han were beginning to aggressively intervene in Southeast Asia, their response was to cooperate as much as possible to avoid direct conflict.
Palmerston silently accepted Melbourne's version of events:
"Should we relay the news of the Han Dynasty's conquest of the Philippines to Spain?"
Melbourne immediately rejected it:
"When the Spanish will know that the Philippines has been lost depends on their own information channels; Britain has no obligation to inform them."
Relations between Britain and Spain have been strained for the past two centuries.